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ICICI Direct’s currency report on USDINR

The US dollar index rallied more than 1.25% on Tuesday. The hawkish comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell sent the dollar to its eight week high as he said the ultimate level of interest rate is likely to be higher than anticipated earlier. The robust economic numbers, particularly the tight labour market and sticky inflation numbers increased the likelihood that the Fed will take more aggressive steps to cool down inflation back to the target range of 2% • The rupee future maturing on March 28 closed with a marginal gain of 0.03% on Monday amid a rise in risk appetite in domestic markets • The rupee is expected to depreciate amid risk aversion in global markets and rally in the dollar index. As per the CME Fedwatch poll, the probability of a 50 basis point hike in the federal funds target has increased to 70%. US$INR is hovering near the key 100 day EMA support at 81.80. Hence, as long as it holds above 81.80 then it is expected to rebound towards 82.20-82.25 zone.

Intra-day strategy

USDINR March futures contract (NSE)
Buy USDINR in the range of 81.98-82.00
Target:82.25Stoploss: 81.80
Support: 81.80/81.60Resistance: 82.25/82.40

For all Currency report, click here

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